In the Beginning There Was Idea

Every business starts as an idea which is generally a new thing and in most of the cases adds some value in some existing thing and generates cash flow in the process.

To convert the abstract concept of idea into a concrete business it requires financing.

How an idea can be financed?

One option is to get money with a promise of giving extra as per the pertinent Interest Rate.
It’s pretty straightforward and simple to understand.

You have an idea and other person has money and he is willing to give you the money with a promise of some additional money after a fixed period of time…Simple.

Another form of financing comes through Stocks.

How this form of financing works?

Now, this one is quite interesting and one of the greatest invention after the concept of money itself.

Let’s have a look at this more closely…

You are willing to give money without a promise of anything in return.

No Interest Rates……No Security of Principal….just a faith in the business ….. Seriously….How it works then!!

This is an astonishing thing as well as something that baffled many and make it difficult for them to fathom.

Let’s take a further look at this….

A business is divided into many parts and those parts are called Stocks of the business and people can buy those parts in the initial public offering (IPO).

Over the time these stocks are traded at a place called Stock Market based on‘perception’ about their growth in future the price changes over time.

Why price changes so much if the value of underlying business is not changing?

It’s all about Greed and Fear and it’s discussed here Greed & Fear

How an investor with a right mindset should see it?

The analogy of Mr. Market by Benjamin Graham is very helpful in understanding the overall scenario.

According to that, you are partner in a business with a crazy person Mr. Market.

Mr. Market has wild mood swings.

Every day he offers you to Buy your shares at a particular price or Sell his shares at a particular price.

But leaves the decision up to you entirely.

Sometimes he’s in very Good mood and tend to name a price higher thantrue value of business and he will accept with joy your shares at that price.

At other times he is in such Bad mood that he tend to name a price very low than true value of business and you can take advantage of Mr. Market’s crazy offer to buy his shares.

And not to mention that you always have the choice of not doing anything.

That’s the real beauty no penalty for inaction….Which is the greatest edge for an investor with the right mindset.

We’ll explore more…Stay Tuned.

Nivesh Niti in Nutshell

   “Investing is simple, but not easy.”
                                   – Warren Buffett

Nivesh Niti (Nivesh Niti – Android Apps on Google Play ) is an attempt to impart the right investor mindset.

Most of the financial content on the internet is designed for short-term traders which gives the idea that it is very easy to make money in short term whereas the opposite is true.

It is difficult to predict any stock performance in short term and at the same time it is pretty easy say with greater chances of being right about the long term prospects of a company given that the company is doing something you understand and they have a earning model that you understand.

It is more likely for a company who is doing good for last 10 years to perform well in 11th as well as subsequent years and is actually relatively easy than predicting what it is going to do in next few days.

This process is an inherent part of what is famously known as “Value Investing” pioneered by Benjamin Graham and then by his disciple Warren Buffett.

Value investing is all about Paying the Right price for the company.


Core idea of Value Investing is trying to BUY something only at SALE (50% or more Discount)

Just like in SALE of any kind you need to know the MRP (Maximum Retail Price) to know it’s on how much Discount.

In Nivesh Niti every stock is assigned a value that reflect what should be its MRP (known as Optimum Price) by quantifying various aspects that matters as per Value Investing Principles.

For easier reference they are assigned with the Star Rating which is just an indication of their current level of Discount from Optimum Price.

So, the Current Price of a stock at any day place them to have one of the following levels of Discount from Optimum Price.

Level of Discount               Stars
50% or More                           5
40% to 50%                           4.5
30% to 40%                            4
20% to 30%                           3.5
10% to 20%                           2.5
0% to 10%                               2

And when,
Current Price >= Optimum Price (NOT at SALE)  i.e.  1 Star

Like in any SALE our aim is to get Maximum Value for our Paid Price.

“Price is what you pay for something, but value is what you get.”
–Warren Buffett

OUR AIM IS :
          “To Buy Great Businesses at Maximum Discount.”

A value of above Optimum Price just means that it’s NOT yet at SALE so just stay away from it till it’s on SALE (if ever).
That’s the only thing to focus and all the other things will automatically fall into place.

Currently, Nivesh Niti hides all the complexities and just present the most crucial things to impart the right investing mindset.

Nivesh Niti has a small (but growing) set of stocks selected according to Value Investing Principles and User can invest only among those.

The current takeaways from Nivesh Niti are:

  •   To stay focused on the value of the business and only look at the stock market when you want and too as its Master not as a Servant.
  • It helps user imbibe value investing principles which by nature is highly selective approach and isolate user from herd like mentality of the crowd.
  • It reinforces that investing is easy, not rigorous and painstaking.
  • It NOT necessary to have opinion about all the things in financial markets.
  • And above all Patience.

Use it according to the way it’s designed for some time and evaluate if you experience any difference in your outlook towards the investment in the Stock Market.

Finally,

It’s a Journey not a Destination…there are exciting things ahead……Stay Tuned

Disclaimer:
It’s for imparting the knowledge to help spread a right mindset to approach the investing and does not suggest any stocks and it should be used as an education tool only.

The Beast……Compound Interest

Irrespective of any field of study one thing that remains common is..…..Importance of basics.

So, let’s start with some basics…

What is an investment?

An action with the intention of getting something ‘more’ than what is being invested at the end of stipulated time period.

This ‘more’ is known in financial world as Interest.

It’s the extra money paid for the use of money for a time period and is denoted as percentage of the original investment.

For example:
You invested 100 in a bank and got 110 after 1 year. In this case that percentage is (110-100)/100 i.e. 10%

Now after one year you will have 110.
Where 100 is your original investment and 10 is Interest.

If you decide to keep it invested then after 2 years it will become
110+110* 10% i.e. 121
[here extra 1 is what Interest of first year(i.e. 10) earns]

“The money that money earns, earns money”
— Ben Franklin

When you earn interest on interest it is “Compound Interest”.

You have to see the Power of Compound Interest to fully appreciate it……and nothing illustrates it better than this famous story…

In the early 1600 s, the American Indians sold an island, now called Manhattan in New York, for various beads and trinkets worth about $16. Since Manhattan real estate is now some of the most expensive in the world, it would seem at first glance that the American Indians made a terrible deal.

Had the American Indians, however, sold their beads and trinkets, invested their $16 and received 8% compounded annual interest, not only would they have enough money to buy back all of Manhattan, they would still have several hundred million dollars left over (actually….whopping $222 trillion more than the current value of Manhattan).

That is the power of Compound Interest over time.

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.”
           ― Albert Einstein

Amazing…..right?

We‘ll try to figure out how this extra money known as Interest is generated with just the passage of time…..…Stay Tuned

Greed & Fear

The two emotions that drive any financial decisions are Greed & Fear.

The emotion of Greed is usually the first emotion that you have to encounter in your investing journey.

How it starts?

As a human it is natural to desire to acquire as much wealth as possible in the shortest amount of time and this excessive desire is Greed.

It starts as soon as the process of finding an investment option begins and it tries to control your decision from that point onwards.

With so many mythical short term success stories and sure-shot investing ideas floating around….all promising the financial heavens in a short span of time clouds the judgement of the investor.

The cumulative effects of Greed is very conspicuous in financial markets, where many things are overpriced just because every investor swayed by Greedcontributes to the insanity by following the herd of overconfident investors &experts who believe that no price is too high even if it defies the basic fundamentals of investing.

This get-rich-quick mentality makes it very difficult to pursue a long but fruitful pursuit of understanding the investing options and evaluate them against the basic tenets of investing so that you will invest only in things that you understand and where the prices makes sense.

How you can identity that Greed is affecting your decisions…actually it’s quite simple…just answer some very easy and basic questions…

  • Does this investment sounds too good to be true?
  • Do you understand how this investment works?
  • Is it currently available at a price that makes sense?

You know the correct answers already in your mind but this process of reiterating over these basic questions is very crucial and will clear any doubts and reduce any effects of Greed while selecting a particular investment option.

Now coming to the next dominant emotion that is even more powerful than Greed…….which is Fear.

Why Fear is even more powerful than Greed?

The main reason Fear is more powerful is because it remains with you for a longer period of time which can starts right at the moment you commit to an investment.

It also has more capability to decide the degree of damage that can be imposed on your financial well-being if not handled correctly.

Fear can clouds your judgement to the extent that it can jeopardize even your best investing decisions and make them appears to you that you made a mistake.

How it starts?

Fear starts when you start seeing that herd is going in the opposite direction.

The level of damage that Fear might induce can be devastating.

There are many instances when a person who appears at ease during the drop of price of an investment at a level of 100 eventually decided to sell it at level of 50.

What prompts this illogical choice !!

Fear of loss compels the investor to sell at price that is even far below than what is the ‘true’ or ‘fair’ price.
This along with Greedduring buying makes a lethal combination that leads to most of the “Buy High and Sell Low” situations.

How it can be handled?
For this you need to change your perspective of how you see the situation.
If BUY decision had been made with due diligence then the price drop only makes it more attractive investment.
It gives you more chances to magnify your returns if you can control your nerves and train yourself to see the situation with this perspective.

Greed and Fear are inevitable part of an investment journey and more you are prepared to tackle them better are the chances of success you will have in your investing journey.

No one summarizes how to handle Greed and Fear better than one of the greatest investor of all time.

“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Warren Buffett

One just have to keep their head when others are losing theirs…We will explore more…Stay tuned